In the years leading up to 2020, the geopolitical region of Southwest Asia experienced significant developments, influenced by factors such as the efforts of certain Arab states to form a military coalition. These initiatives increased tensions and the potential for conflict in the region. The proposed Arab military coalition, shaped by geopolitical considerations, has raised questions about the feasibility of its establishment in the near future. This study, grounded in the neo-realist theoretical framework, identifies and analyzes the geopolitical factors affecting this coalition. Using cross-impact analysis techniques and expert opinions, the study evaluates the likelihood of forming the coalition. The results indicate that, due to some stronger disruptive factors, the probability of the coalition’s formation is low. Under these circumstances, regional states are encouraged to reduce tensions and pursue new military and security collaborations to bring an end to cycles of war and insecurity.